Thx for the write up. i have read it with interest. I see you have a $5.5 margin on the thermal side. in the last CC an analyst used $4 for the margin for the PRB and the company thought this was too aggressive. So I was wondering if your $5.5 is not way too aggressive in that perspective?
Scroll up in the note and you will see how I got there, it's all about West Elk.
I modeled $3.5 margin for PRB, but West Elk prices off Newcastle. $70 netbacks may be a bit aggressive there given the recent sell-off, so you can throw your own assumption in.
Thx. No I have read it, so I understand your reasoning. I was just wondering if you thought your reasoning needed any tweaking after the CC. I use $4 in my model, but the beauty is that that also leads to such a gross undervaluation that your MOS is great.
How do you play this. Via the common, options or the warrants?
I did the numbers and I agree with you completely under the price that you are using.
But commodities tend to be very cyclical, and I am wondering If the current prices are excessively extended, and I am buying into this stock at the peak of the cycle. I am bullish mid to long term on energy prices as this whole energy transition is been pushed with very unrealistic targets and that would mean higher prices for longer. And now $ARCH is in my watchlist!
I don’t have access to spot price sources, but I found this one: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal that is showing some very steep corrections. Do you have any good free source that you think might be a better one?
Thx for the write up. i have read it with interest. I see you have a $5.5 margin on the thermal side. in the last CC an analyst used $4 for the margin for the PRB and the company thought this was too aggressive. So I was wondering if your $5.5 is not way too aggressive in that perspective?
Scroll up in the note and you will see how I got there, it's all about West Elk.
I modeled $3.5 margin for PRB, but West Elk prices off Newcastle. $70 netbacks may be a bit aggressive there given the recent sell-off, so you can throw your own assumption in.
Thx. No I have read it, so I understand your reasoning. I was just wondering if you thought your reasoning needed any tweaking after the CC. I use $4 in my model, but the beauty is that that also leads to such a gross undervaluation that your MOS is great.
How do you play this. Via the common, options or the warrants?
Twebs, thanks for the write up.
I did the numbers and I agree with you completely under the price that you are using.
But commodities tend to be very cyclical, and I am wondering If the current prices are excessively extended, and I am buying into this stock at the peak of the cycle. I am bullish mid to long term on energy prices as this whole energy transition is been pushed with very unrealistic targets and that would mean higher prices for longer. And now $ARCH is in my watchlist!
I don’t have access to spot price sources, but I found this one: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/coal that is showing some very steep corrections. Do you have any good free source that you think might be a better one?
THANKS!!
𝑻𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒇𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒃𝒂𝒄𝒌, 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒏 𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒐 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒇𝒖𝒍 ,𝑾𝑯'𝑨𝑻'𝑺'𝑨𝑷'𝑷 𝑴𝑬 十
+•1•27=2•2=8•=1=••0=••77=••5=•√•✔️✔️✔️✔***
mh. I have some Arch. debatting adding even though im in the green.