Like everything I have seen from you so far, this is great. Great run up in lumber and crickets on the stock. I think this is a team where buy backs at low prices are very likely.
Have you been hacked? I thought substack was so much less shitty in that way than X. Anyway I do miss you. Haven't made money since you left us. Am a bit lonely. And may call you now that I know your number. Just kidding. Do miss you though,
Ugh. Looks like it’s the X method of adding a digit to the screen name. So I haven’t been hacked but this clown made up an account that looks like mine.
What do you think of the YAVB podcast with Mike Mitchell, Greenfirst's connection with Kyle Cerminara and the negative articles relating to Kyle Cerminara by Roddy Boyd and The Bear Cave?
I thought Mike's podcast with Andrew was really good. No view on the latter as it relates to the success of this investment. Kyle/BTN will win if Lumber and utilization are strong, lose if the opposite. Those are a lot more important factors
Interesting. But this from the article you cited seems unaddressed. 'In fact, Mason thinks that, for a normal year, there are still too many sawmills operating relative to demand. “There’s still another billion board feet of capacity that needs to come out of British Columbia.”' Wouldn't that weigh directly on the thesis?
When you say peers are at 4.5x, which year are you referring to and at which Lumber price? I thought using 4.5x on a normalized number is quite fair. Maintenance capex needs are quite low, cash tax rate is reasonable and Interest expense should be close to nil unless Lumber crashes tomorrow. Thus, 4.5x EBITDA is going to translate to a 5x handle Free Cash Flow.
That was from the last time I checked. I see RFP is now at 3x 2023 EBITDA and CFP at 3.5x 2023 EBITDA. I do not know the underlying Lumber prices used.
I think with RFP you have a Pension obligation you need to treat as net debt and add to EV so the multiple is not always clean. Then you need to know the Lumber assumption and what margins the company makes at given level of Lumber. Ultimately, the answer might be that the whole sector is attractive, which I am fine with. I am not sure that the catalyst path of improving ops, liquidity etc exists with the others.
Like everything I have seen from you so far, this is great. Great run up in lumber and crickets on the stock. I think this is a team where buy backs at low prices are very likely.
𝑻𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒇𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒃𝒂𝒄𝒌, 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒏 𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒐 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒇𝒖𝒍 ,𝑾𝑯'𝑨𝑻'𝑺'𝑨𝑷'𝑷 𝑴𝑬 十
+•1•27=2•2=8•=1=••0=••77=••5=•√•✔️✔️✔️✔***
Have you been hacked? I thought substack was so much less shitty in that way than X. Anyway I do miss you. Haven't made money since you left us. Am a bit lonely. And may call you now that I know your number. Just kidding. Do miss you though,
Ugh. Looks like it’s the X method of adding a digit to the screen name. So I haven’t been hacked but this clown made up an account that looks like mine.
What do you think of the YAVB podcast with Mike Mitchell, Greenfirst's connection with Kyle Cerminara and the negative articles relating to Kyle Cerminara by Roddy Boyd and The Bear Cave?
I thought Mike's podcast with Andrew was really good. No view on the latter as it relates to the success of this investment. Kyle/BTN will win if Lumber and utilization are strong, lose if the opposite. Those are a lot more important factors
Interesting. But this from the article you cited seems unaddressed. 'In fact, Mason thinks that, for a normal year, there are still too many sawmills operating relative to demand. “There’s still another billion board feet of capacity that needs to come out of British Columbia.”' Wouldn't that weigh directly on the thesis?
No. GFP mills are in the East, not BC. Further capacity coming out of the industry would only exacerbate the longer term supply/demand issue
𝑻𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒇𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒃𝒂𝒄𝒌, 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒏 𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒐 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒇𝒖𝒍 ,𝑾𝑯'𝑨𝑻'𝑺'𝑨𝑷'𝑷 𝑴𝑬 十
+•1•27=2•2=8•=1=••0=••77=••5=•√•✔️✔️✔️✔***
Interesting. How did you arrive at the 4.5x multiple? Peers trade at 4x and are far more liquid.
Your point stands that if lumber stays at 5/600, GFP turns out to be a good bet.
When you say peers are at 4.5x, which year are you referring to and at which Lumber price? I thought using 4.5x on a normalized number is quite fair. Maintenance capex needs are quite low, cash tax rate is reasonable and Interest expense should be close to nil unless Lumber crashes tomorrow. Thus, 4.5x EBITDA is going to translate to a 5x handle Free Cash Flow.
That was from the last time I checked. I see RFP is now at 3x 2023 EBITDA and CFP at 3.5x 2023 EBITDA. I do not know the underlying Lumber prices used.
I think with RFP you have a Pension obligation you need to treat as net debt and add to EV so the multiple is not always clean. Then you need to know the Lumber assumption and what margins the company makes at given level of Lumber. Ultimately, the answer might be that the whole sector is attractive, which I am fine with. I am not sure that the catalyst path of improving ops, liquidity etc exists with the others.
Million dollar question. This is why we really need an Analyst Day or roadshow, stat. I tried my best but there are 100 questions I still have.
𝑻𝒉𝒂𝒏𝒌 𝒚𝒐𝒖 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒚𝒐𝒖𝒓 𝒇𝒆𝒆𝒅𝒃𝒂𝒄𝒌, 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒎𝒐𝒓𝒆 𝒊𝒏𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒎𝒂𝒕𝒊𝒐𝒏 𝒐𝒏 𝒉𝒐𝒘 𝒕𝒐 𝒃𝒆 𝒔𝒖𝒄𝒄𝒆𝒔𝒔𝒇𝒖𝒍 ,𝑾𝑯'𝑨𝑻'𝑺'𝑨𝑷'𝑷 𝑴𝑬 十
+•1•27=2•2=8•=1=••0=••77=••5=•√•✔️✔️✔️✔***